Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses Monday as expected, in a decisive enough win that multiple news outlets made the call just half an hour after caucuses began.
But Trump's strength with the Hawkeye State's Republican base papers over his deficit as a general election candidate. Trump's campaign schedule over the coming months will be littered with court hearings, appearances, and rulings—a legal onslaught that has galvanized his diehard supporters but will haunt him among the general electorate.
That's true of all voters, even Republicans, with 31% of them saying they would not vote for Trump if he is criminally convicted, according to a December Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Some of Trump's general election vulnerabilities were also revealed in a recent Washington Post/University of Maryland poll about the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Although the survey showed GOP voters are now more likely to downplay Trump's culpability for the attack than they were three years ago, 24% of Republicans sided with the statement that "the storming of the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021 was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten." Additionally, 53% of independents and 86% of Democrats viewed it that way, rather than dismissing the violent insurrection as overblown.
And while the number of Republican voters who say Trump deserves a good or great amount of responsibility for the attack has dropped from 27% in 2021 to 14% now, that 14% likely holds far more informed and solidified views today of Trump's role than they did in the immediate aftermath of the assault on the Capitol.
In other words, while these polls are remarkable for showing Trump's staying power among the Republican base, they also expose the 14% to 31% of GOP voters who could be dissuaded from voting for Trump.
A likely Biden-vs.-Trump rematch this November will be decided on the margins, with both candidates garnering around 46% of the partisan vote and building from there to assemble a winning coalition.
In the fight for that remaining 10%, give or take, Trump will be carrying a significant amount of baggage related to the violence on Jan. 6 and his attempt to overthrow American democracy, even among a small but critical portion of his own voters.
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But Trump's strength with the Hawkeye State's Republican base papers over his deficit as a general election candidate. Trump's campaign schedule over the coming months will be littered with court hearings, appearances, and rulings—a legal onslaught that has galvanized his diehard supporters but will haunt him among the general electorate.
That's true of all voters, even Republicans, with 31% of them saying they would not vote for Trump if he is criminally convicted, according to a December Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Some of Trump's general election vulnerabilities were also revealed in a recent Washington Post/University of Maryland poll about the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Although the survey showed GOP voters are now more likely to downplay Trump's culpability for the attack than they were three years ago, 24% of Republicans sided with the statement that "the storming of the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021 was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten." Additionally, 53% of independents and 86% of Democrats viewed it that way, rather than dismissing the violent insurrection as overblown.
And while the number of Republican voters who say Trump deserves a good or great amount of responsibility for the attack has dropped from 27% in 2021 to 14% now, that 14% likely holds far more informed and solidified views today of Trump's role than they did in the immediate aftermath of the assault on the Capitol.
In other words, while these polls are remarkable for showing Trump's staying power among the Republican base, they also expose the 14% to 31% of GOP voters who could be dissuaded from voting for Trump.
A likely Biden-vs.-Trump rematch this November will be decided on the margins, with both candidates garnering around 46% of the partisan vote and building from there to assemble a winning coalition.
In the fight for that remaining 10%, give or take, Trump will be carrying a significant amount of baggage related to the violence on Jan. 6 and his attempt to overthrow American democracy, even among a small but critical portion of his own voters.
Campaign Action