The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Embedded Content
● MT Supreme Court: Two of the most hotly contested state supreme court races next year will take place in Montana, where a pair of liberal justices are retiring, giving Republicans the chance to elect a conservative majority.
Stephen Wolf explains the stakes in a new piece previewing those elections. Montana's top court doesn't have a sharp ideological lean, but it's repeatedly ruled that the right to an abortion is protected by the state constitution. Republicans are eager to ban abortion in the state, which means they must first reshape the court to their liking.
Read Wolf's complete analysis of the 2024 battle for the Montana Supreme Court, including how reproductive rights advocates are fighting back.
● CA-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a poll of the March top-two primary for the Center for Election Science, an organization that promotes approval voting and was funded last year by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and the since-convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried:
Most recent polls have shown Schiff and Porter with the most support, albeit with a large proportion of undecided voters.
The release does not include any questions concerning approval voting: A form of this electoral system, which we explain here, is utilized for local elections in St. Louis, Missouri, but not in any major California jurisdictions.
● UT-Sen, UT-03: The Salt Lake Tribune reports that the super PAC Conservative Values for Utah, which is trying to convince Rep. John Curtis to run for the Senate, has commissioned an internal poll that finds him far ahead in a hypothetical June GOP primary. Guidant Polling and Strategy shows Curtis beating former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson 40-11, with Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs at 6%; Curtis also leads Wilson 44-12 in a one-on-one.
Several Republicans want Curtis to run to replace retiring GOP Sen. Mitt Romney so they can run for his safely red 3rd District, and one familiar name is doing more than just waiting around. State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who lost the 2018 primary to Romney, declared Friday that he was creating an "exploratory committee" for a potential House campaign.
However, Curtis has publicly been indecisive about whether he'll seek a promotion. The congressman initially said in October that he'd seek reelection rather than join Wilson and Staggs in the contest for the upper chamber, but he declared the following month that he was reconsidering. Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales reported in mid-November that Curtis was informing allies that he'd decided to run for Senate, but we've heard nothing new since then.
● CA-26: Agoura Hills City Council member Chris Anstead has confirmed that he's running against his fellow Democrat, Rep. Julia Brownley, in the March top-two primary. Anstead, who earlier this month finished his one-year stint as mayor of this community of about 20,000 (the post rotates among the council members), does not mention the six-term incumbent on his website.
The Acorn writes that three Republicans also filed to seek the 26th District, which is based in Ventura County northwest of Los Angeles, though none of them have attracted much attention so far. Joe Biden carried the constituency 59-39, while Brownley went on to win 55-45 during a tough 2022 cycle for California Democrats.
● CA-31: Former Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has publicized an endorsement from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi ahead of the busy March 5 top-two primary.
● GA-03: State Sen. Matt Brass tells the Newnan Times-Herald that he's interested in running to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson, and will decide next year.
● MN-05: Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel says that Minneapolis City Council member LaTrisha Vetaw has decided not to challenge Rep. Ilhan Omar in the August Democratic primary. Kassel previously reported in August that the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC was trying to recruit Vetaw, though the organization doesn't appear to have said this publicly.
● North Carolina: Candidate filing closed Friday for North Carolina's March 5 primaries, and the state has a list of contenders here. We'll have a rundown in a future Digest.
● NY-03: GOP leaders in Nassau County and Queens officially announced Friday that they'd nominated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip for the Feb. 13 special election to succeed George Santos, though they still seem determined to shield her from any hard questions from the press.
Politico's Emily Ngo writes that the new nominee headed straight for her car after her announcement speech, while local Republicans like Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo and 4th District Rep. Anthony D'Esposito were the ones who took questions from reporters. Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times wrote the previous day that, when he'd asked Pilip her position on a national abortion ban, "a spokesman for the Nassau County Republican Party cut in to say that the candidate did not intend to 'get through the whole platform here."
● NY-11: City & State asked former Rep. Max Rose if he'd think about another run after redistricting, and the Democrat responded, "I would consider it and continue to consider anything, whether that's running or becoming a City & State reporter."
Republican Nicole Malliotakis denied Rose a second term 53-47 in 2020 as Donald Trump was taking a previous version of his Staten Island-based seat 55-44. Rose launched a rematch effort last cycle, and he got some temporary good news when the state legislature passed a map that made the 11th District much bluer. However, the state's highest court threw out that map, and Rose continued his campaign even though Trump would have still carried the revamped seat 53-46; Malliotakis ultimately won in a 62-38 landslide.
● OH-02: Businessman David Taylor, who also works as a prosecutor in Clermont County, announced Thursday that he was joining the March Republican primary and had self-funded $1 million toward his effort. Taylor additionally began airing ads touting himself as a "Trump conservative" whose background in construction means he knows how to build a wall, though there's no word on the size of the buy. The filing deadline is Wednesday for the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Brad Wenstrup in this safely red seat.
● OH-09: Politico reports that unnamed "Republicans in Ohio and Washington" are hoping to recruit a new candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur ahead of Wednesday's filing deadline, though the article doesn't name any potential saviors for this 51-48 Trump seat.
The story came days after Sen. J.D. Vance and other notable Republicans endorsed J.R. Majewski, the QAnon ally who lost to Kaptur 57-43 last year. "You could take a self-funder with over half a million dollars to put in that race and win the primary and have a better shot at beating Marcy Kaptur than J.R. Majewski … who will lose by 20 points," one GOP source predicted.
Former state Rep. Craig Riedel was the party's frontrunner until this month, but that changed when far-right personality Charlie Kirk shared audio where the candidate bashed Donald Trump as "arrogant" and called for the party to go "in a different direction." Riedel quickly declared he was endorsing his party's master, but that was far from enough to make the problem go away.
Riedel, though, is still hoping he can get Trump to view his rival as the heretic in the race. The Messenger reported Thursday that he was spending $10,000 to air ads on Fox News in West Palm Beach, Florida―a media market that just so happens to include Mar-A-Lago―that includes images from social media where Majewski appears to call Trump an "idiot" and "too establishment."
Politico writes that, per screenshots from local Democratic operative Sam Melendez, Majewski's X account sent a direct message in January 2022 with these unflattering words. Melendez posted images of this missive months later, and the story says that Majewski "panicked and ordered his aides to help him figure out how to explain the messages to Trump's team."
After he considered claiming his account was hacked, Majewski instead decided to call the anti-Trump writings "100% fake and photoshopped." Politico adds that Melendez "showed POLITICO his exchange on X with Majewski in a video call to demonstrate the images he provided were not doctored."
This offensive, though, may come too late to rescue Riedel. "He made a mistake," NRCC chair Richard Hudson said before ominously adding, "We're obviously having conversations with people on the ground. I don't know what the next steps are."
● Abortion Rights: Grace Panetta at The 19th has put together an invaluable resource tracking the abortion rights measures that may be on the ballot in as many as 11 states next year. Panetta includes information about the current law in each of these states, as well as the number of signatures needed, the deadline to submit petitions, and potential procedural challenges.
The Democratic-led legislatures in two states, Maryland and New York, voted earlier this year to place constitutional amendments on the Nov. 5 general election ballot to enshrine abortion rights into their respective state constitutions. However, it remains to be seen how many of the remaining nine states will also get to weigh in.
The largest state on this list is Florida, where it takes 60% of the vote to amend the constitution. Pro-choice groups are trying to pass an amendment that would undo the six-week ban that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law this year and guarantee abortion rights up to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. (The six-week law has not gone into effect yet because the conservative state Supreme Court still needs to issue an option on the legality of the 15-week ban that Republicans previously passed; for now, abortion is prohibited after 15 weeks.)
However, no one's sure yet if Floridians Protecting Freedom will be able to get its measure on the ballot. The campaign only has until Feb. 1 to submit the almost 892,000 signatures, a figure that represents 8% of the total number of votes cast in the state's last presidential election. That's not all, though, because Sunshine State law further requires that organizers hit this target by collecting 8% of the districtwide vote from at least half of the state's 28 congressional districts, a task that got tougher after DeSantis pushed through an aggressive gerrymander last year.
The Florida Division of Elections reported Friday that the campaign to pass this amendment, Floridians Protecting Freedom, has submitted over 753,000 valid petitions, a jump from 688,000 one week before. But as Panetta writes, Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody has filed a lawsuit to convince the state Supreme Court to keep the amendment from going before voters.
Check out, and bookmark, Panetta's piece for far more on the abortion rights contests that are taking shape across the country.
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Embedded Content
Leading Off
● MT Supreme Court: Two of the most hotly contested state supreme court races next year will take place in Montana, where a pair of liberal justices are retiring, giving Republicans the chance to elect a conservative majority.
Stephen Wolf explains the stakes in a new piece previewing those elections. Montana's top court doesn't have a sharp ideological lean, but it's repeatedly ruled that the right to an abortion is protected by the state constitution. Republicans are eager to ban abortion in the state, which means they must first reshape the court to their liking.
Read Wolf's complete analysis of the 2024 battle for the Montana Supreme Court, including how reproductive rights advocates are fighting back.
Senate
● CA-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a poll of the March top-two primary for the Center for Election Science, an organization that promotes approval voting and was funded last year by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and the since-convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried:
- Rep. Adam Schiff (D): 22
- former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey (R): 15
- Rep. Barbara Lee (D): 12
- Rep. Katie Porter (D): 12
- 2022 attorney general candidate Eric Early (R): 6
- perennial candidate James Bradley (R): 5
- former TV news anchor Christina Pascucci (D): 5
- Undecided: 20
Most recent polls have shown Schiff and Porter with the most support, albeit with a large proportion of undecided voters.
The release does not include any questions concerning approval voting: A form of this electoral system, which we explain here, is utilized for local elections in St. Louis, Missouri, but not in any major California jurisdictions.
● UT-Sen, UT-03: The Salt Lake Tribune reports that the super PAC Conservative Values for Utah, which is trying to convince Rep. John Curtis to run for the Senate, has commissioned an internal poll that finds him far ahead in a hypothetical June GOP primary. Guidant Polling and Strategy shows Curtis beating former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson 40-11, with Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs at 6%; Curtis also leads Wilson 44-12 in a one-on-one.
Several Republicans want Curtis to run to replace retiring GOP Sen. Mitt Romney so they can run for his safely red 3rd District, and one familiar name is doing more than just waiting around. State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who lost the 2018 primary to Romney, declared Friday that he was creating an "exploratory committee" for a potential House campaign.
However, Curtis has publicly been indecisive about whether he'll seek a promotion. The congressman initially said in October that he'd seek reelection rather than join Wilson and Staggs in the contest for the upper chamber, but he declared the following month that he was reconsidering. Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales reported in mid-November that Curtis was informing allies that he'd decided to run for Senate, but we've heard nothing new since then.
House
● CA-26: Agoura Hills City Council member Chris Anstead has confirmed that he's running against his fellow Democrat, Rep. Julia Brownley, in the March top-two primary. Anstead, who earlier this month finished his one-year stint as mayor of this community of about 20,000 (the post rotates among the council members), does not mention the six-term incumbent on his website.
The Acorn writes that three Republicans also filed to seek the 26th District, which is based in Ventura County northwest of Los Angeles, though none of them have attracted much attention so far. Joe Biden carried the constituency 59-39, while Brownley went on to win 55-45 during a tough 2022 cycle for California Democrats.
● CA-31: Former Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has publicized an endorsement from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi ahead of the busy March 5 top-two primary.
● GA-03: State Sen. Matt Brass tells the Newnan Times-Herald that he's interested in running to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson, and will decide next year.
● MN-05: Jewish Insider's Matthew Kassel says that Minneapolis City Council member LaTrisha Vetaw has decided not to challenge Rep. Ilhan Omar in the August Democratic primary. Kassel previously reported in August that the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC was trying to recruit Vetaw, though the organization doesn't appear to have said this publicly.
● North Carolina: Candidate filing closed Friday for North Carolina's March 5 primaries, and the state has a list of contenders here. We'll have a rundown in a future Digest.
● NY-03: GOP leaders in Nassau County and Queens officially announced Friday that they'd nominated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip for the Feb. 13 special election to succeed George Santos, though they still seem determined to shield her from any hard questions from the press.
Politico's Emily Ngo writes that the new nominee headed straight for her car after her announcement speech, while local Republicans like Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo and 4th District Rep. Anthony D'Esposito were the ones who took questions from reporters. Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times wrote the previous day that, when he'd asked Pilip her position on a national abortion ban, "a spokesman for the Nassau County Republican Party cut in to say that the candidate did not intend to 'get through the whole platform here."
● NY-11: City & State asked former Rep. Max Rose if he'd think about another run after redistricting, and the Democrat responded, "I would consider it and continue to consider anything, whether that's running or becoming a City & State reporter."
Republican Nicole Malliotakis denied Rose a second term 53-47 in 2020 as Donald Trump was taking a previous version of his Staten Island-based seat 55-44. Rose launched a rematch effort last cycle, and he got some temporary good news when the state legislature passed a map that made the 11th District much bluer. However, the state's highest court threw out that map, and Rose continued his campaign even though Trump would have still carried the revamped seat 53-46; Malliotakis ultimately won in a 62-38 landslide.
● OH-02: Businessman David Taylor, who also works as a prosecutor in Clermont County, announced Thursday that he was joining the March Republican primary and had self-funded $1 million toward his effort. Taylor additionally began airing ads touting himself as a "Trump conservative" whose background in construction means he knows how to build a wall, though there's no word on the size of the buy. The filing deadline is Wednesday for the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Brad Wenstrup in this safely red seat.
● OH-09: Politico reports that unnamed "Republicans in Ohio and Washington" are hoping to recruit a new candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur ahead of Wednesday's filing deadline, though the article doesn't name any potential saviors for this 51-48 Trump seat.
The story came days after Sen. J.D. Vance and other notable Republicans endorsed J.R. Majewski, the QAnon ally who lost to Kaptur 57-43 last year. "You could take a self-funder with over half a million dollars to put in that race and win the primary and have a better shot at beating Marcy Kaptur than J.R. Majewski … who will lose by 20 points," one GOP source predicted.
Former state Rep. Craig Riedel was the party's frontrunner until this month, but that changed when far-right personality Charlie Kirk shared audio where the candidate bashed Donald Trump as "arrogant" and called for the party to go "in a different direction." Riedel quickly declared he was endorsing his party's master, but that was far from enough to make the problem go away.
Riedel, though, is still hoping he can get Trump to view his rival as the heretic in the race. The Messenger reported Thursday that he was spending $10,000 to air ads on Fox News in West Palm Beach, Florida―a media market that just so happens to include Mar-A-Lago―that includes images from social media where Majewski appears to call Trump an "idiot" and "too establishment."
Politico writes that, per screenshots from local Democratic operative Sam Melendez, Majewski's X account sent a direct message in January 2022 with these unflattering words. Melendez posted images of this missive months later, and the story says that Majewski "panicked and ordered his aides to help him figure out how to explain the messages to Trump's team."
After he considered claiming his account was hacked, Majewski instead decided to call the anti-Trump writings "100% fake and photoshopped." Politico adds that Melendez "showed POLITICO his exchange on X with Majewski in a video call to demonstrate the images he provided were not doctored."
This offensive, though, may come too late to rescue Riedel. "He made a mistake," NRCC chair Richard Hudson said before ominously adding, "We're obviously having conversations with people on the ground. I don't know what the next steps are."
Ballot Measures
● Abortion Rights: Grace Panetta at The 19th has put together an invaluable resource tracking the abortion rights measures that may be on the ballot in as many as 11 states next year. Panetta includes information about the current law in each of these states, as well as the number of signatures needed, the deadline to submit petitions, and potential procedural challenges.
The Democratic-led legislatures in two states, Maryland and New York, voted earlier this year to place constitutional amendments on the Nov. 5 general election ballot to enshrine abortion rights into their respective state constitutions. However, it remains to be seen how many of the remaining nine states will also get to weigh in.
The largest state on this list is Florida, where it takes 60% of the vote to amend the constitution. Pro-choice groups are trying to pass an amendment that would undo the six-week ban that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law this year and guarantee abortion rights up to 24 weeks into a pregnancy. (The six-week law has not gone into effect yet because the conservative state Supreme Court still needs to issue an option on the legality of the 15-week ban that Republicans previously passed; for now, abortion is prohibited after 15 weeks.)
However, no one's sure yet if Floridians Protecting Freedom will be able to get its measure on the ballot. The campaign only has until Feb. 1 to submit the almost 892,000 signatures, a figure that represents 8% of the total number of votes cast in the state's last presidential election. That's not all, though, because Sunshine State law further requires that organizers hit this target by collecting 8% of the districtwide vote from at least half of the state's 28 congressional districts, a task that got tougher after DeSantis pushed through an aggressive gerrymander last year.
The Florida Division of Elections reported Friday that the campaign to pass this amendment, Floridians Protecting Freedom, has submitted over 753,000 valid petitions, a jump from 688,000 one week before. But as Panetta writes, Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody has filed a lawsuit to convince the state Supreme Court to keep the amendment from going before voters.
Check out, and bookmark, Panetta's piece for far more on the abortion rights contests that are taking shape across the country.
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