The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Daily Kos Elections will be off Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. The next Live Digest will be on Tuesday, while the next Morning Digest will go out on Wednesday.
● FL State House: Florida Democrats—eager to prove they're getting their mojo back—have a major test coming up on Tuesday, but if they're to succeed, they'll need to overcome a spending gap that has favored the GOP.
In a new piece at Daily Kos Elections, Jeff Singer lays out the stakes in Tuesday's special election for the 35th District in Florida's state House, where Democrat Tom Keen is looking to flip a swingy seat long held by Republicans. But which electorate will show up, the one that favored Joe Biden in 2020, or the one that gave Ron DeSantis a wide win two years later?
DeSantis, though, has seemingly kept his distance from this contest, which is set to take place just a day after what's shaping up to be a humiliating defeat in the Iowa caucuses. Still smarting after the midterms, Sunshine State Democrats would be thrilled to hand their number one nemesis back-to-back losses.
But it's not just about embarrassing DeSantis. Read Singer's preview to learn why Democrats believe this race could say a whole lot more about their chances in November.
● CA-Sen: UC Berkeley's new poll for the Los Angeles Times shows Adam Schiff ahead in the March 5 top-two primary as a fellow Democratic representative, Katie Porter, enjoys a small advantage over Republican Steve Garvey for the second general election spot. The results are below, with the school's October numbers in parentheses:
The remaining 19% was split between other candidates, none of whom exceeded 3% in this survey.
There has been little TV advertising so far in this massive state, but that's starting to change. Both Porter (featuring her famous whiteboard) and Schiff (noting his efforts to rein in Trump) aired their first spots of the campaign during the preceding week, and each Southern California Democrat is focusing their initial efforts on the Bay Area. Lee, who represents the East Bay and has considerably less money than either of her colleagues, has not yet taken to the airwaves.
AdImpact says that Schiff has spent $2.4 million on TV so far, while Porter is just behind with $2.1 million. A pro-Lee group called She Speaks for Me deployed $1 million on TV and digital spots in November, but there hasn't been any major spending on her behalf since then.
UC Berkley also asked respondents how they'd vote in the concurrent special election for the remaining months of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein's term. Schiff again leads with 21%, while Porter has a smaller 18-17 edge against Garvey. Lee and Republican Eric Early, respectively, take 12% and 11%; Early only clocks in at 3% in the contest for a full term.
The special election has a considerably smaller number of contenders, which may explain the differences between these two questions: A total of 27 candidates will be on the ballot in the top-two primary for a full term, compared to only seven for the special.
● MI-Sen: The Michigan political tip-sheet MIRS and the Northern Michigan Business Alliance have publicized a survey of each party's Aug. 6 Senate primary from Target Insyght, a firm that has done work for state Democrats and media organizations. Democratic voters favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin by a wide 65-7 margin against actor Hill Harper, which is even larger than the 50-12 advantage that Public Policy Polling found in its recent survey for a pro-Slotkin group.
Target-Insyght, meanwhile, shows former Detroit Police Chief James Craig outpacing former Rep. Mike Rogers 33-20 in the GOP primary, with 11% going to former Rep. Peter Meijer. Another 2% favor rich guy Sandy Pensler, who lost the 2018 primary for this seat, while 33% are undecided. This is the first survey we've seen of this contest in months.
● WV-Sen: While every poll released to date has shown Gov. Jim Justice easily defeating Rep. Alex Mooney in the May 14 Republican primary for West Virginia's open Senate seat, the frontrunner is still using his opening TV ad to attack the congressman. Justice begins by addressing the commercials that the radical anti-tax Club for Growth has aired against him. "You know me," he says directly to the camera. "Do you really think I'd support Obama, Hillary, or Biden? Totally absurd."
After emphasizing his right-wing credentials, including the fact that he's Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, Justice takes a shot both at his rival's past career as a Maryland state legislator and the Club's acrimonious history with MAGA's master. "When you see Maryland Mooney's lying ads from his D.C. Club, remember what Trump says," Justice argues, before a clip plays of Trump dismissing the Club as "a fraud" and "crooked."
The National Journal, citing data from AdImpact, writes that the ad is airing as part of a relatively small $78,000 buy, though that figure could increase.
● CA-31: Former Rep. Gil Cisneros publicized an endorsement on Thursday from Rep. Robert Garcia, a fellow Democrat who represents a nearby slice of Los Angeles County, for the March 5 top-two primary. The freshman congressman, unlike the other 15 California House members who are backing Cisneros' comeback bid, did not serve with Cisneros when he represented a different part of Southern California from 2019 through 2021.
● Hillsborough County, FL State Attorney: Democrat Andrew Warren, who recently said he would not run for another term as the top prosecutor in Hillsborough County, Florida, is now reconsidering that decision in the wake of a favorable ruling from a federal appeals court.
Warren was suspended from his post in 2022 by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has bragged about removing a progressive prosecutor he's derided as "woke." Warren soon challenged his ouster in court, but last year, a federal judge declined to reinstate him. U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle ruled that several of Warren's actions and statements that had motivated DeSantis—such as Warren's opposition to prosecuting individuals who obtain or provide abortions—were not protected by the First Amendment and were therefore not improper for the governor to rely on in suspending him.
On Wednesday, however, the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals determined that Hinkle had erred, concluding that many of the reasons DeSantis cited for removing Warren were in fact entitled to First Amendment protection. The appeals court ordered Hinkle to instead consider whether DeSantis would still have removed Warren from office based only on a smaller set of reasons that did not constitute protected speech. These include a policy Warren instituted aimed at reducing the number of prosecutions of bicyclists, a disproportionate number of whom were Black.
Just days earlier, Warren had announced he wouldn't challenge the Republican whom DeSantis picked to replace him, Suzy Lopez, because of what he called the "high risk" the governor would suspend him again if he were to win. Immediately after the 11th Circuit handed down its decision, though, Warren asked the appeals court to expedite his case, saying in a filing that his "decision about whether to run for reelection as State Attorney depends in significant part on the outcome of this litigation."
Correction: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly explained the basis for a legal ruling in the case brought by Democrat Andrew Warren challenging his suspension as state attorney in Hillsborough County, Florida. We have corrected that explanation.
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Embedded Content
Daily Kos Elections will be off Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. The next Live Digest will be on Tuesday, while the next Morning Digest will go out on Wednesday.
Leading Off
● FL State House: Florida Democrats—eager to prove they're getting their mojo back—have a major test coming up on Tuesday, but if they're to succeed, they'll need to overcome a spending gap that has favored the GOP.
In a new piece at Daily Kos Elections, Jeff Singer lays out the stakes in Tuesday's special election for the 35th District in Florida's state House, where Democrat Tom Keen is looking to flip a swingy seat long held by Republicans. But which electorate will show up, the one that favored Joe Biden in 2020, or the one that gave Ron DeSantis a wide win two years later?
DeSantis, though, has seemingly kept his distance from this contest, which is set to take place just a day after what's shaping up to be a humiliating defeat in the Iowa caucuses. Still smarting after the midterms, Sunshine State Democrats would be thrilled to hand their number one nemesis back-to-back losses.
But it's not just about embarrassing DeSantis. Read Singer's preview to learn why Democrats believe this race could say a whole lot more about their chances in November.
4Q Fundraising
- OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $6.6 million raised, $14.6 million cash on hand
- WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): $3 million raised
- VA-Gov: Levar Stoney (D): $760,000 raised (in four weeks)
- MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D): $550,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand
- NY-19: Josh Riley (D): $697,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
- VA-07: Margaret Franklin (D): $120,000 raised (in five weeks), $100,000 cash on hand
- WA-06: Hillary Franz (D): $400,000 raised (in seven weeks)
Senate
● CA-Sen: UC Berkeley's new poll for the Los Angeles Times shows Adam Schiff ahead in the March 5 top-two primary as a fellow Democratic representative, Katie Porter, enjoys a small advantage over Republican Steve Garvey for the second general election spot. The results are below, with the school's October numbers in parentheses:
- Rep. Adam Schiff (D): 21 (16)
- Rep. Katie Porter (D): 17 (17)
- former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey (R): 13 (10)
- Rep. Barbara Lee (D): 9 (9)
- Undecided: 21 (30)
The remaining 19% was split between other candidates, none of whom exceeded 3% in this survey.
There has been little TV advertising so far in this massive state, but that's starting to change. Both Porter (featuring her famous whiteboard) and Schiff (noting his efforts to rein in Trump) aired their first spots of the campaign during the preceding week, and each Southern California Democrat is focusing their initial efforts on the Bay Area. Lee, who represents the East Bay and has considerably less money than either of her colleagues, has not yet taken to the airwaves.
AdImpact says that Schiff has spent $2.4 million on TV so far, while Porter is just behind with $2.1 million. A pro-Lee group called She Speaks for Me deployed $1 million on TV and digital spots in November, but there hasn't been any major spending on her behalf since then.
UC Berkley also asked respondents how they'd vote in the concurrent special election for the remaining months of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein's term. Schiff again leads with 21%, while Porter has a smaller 18-17 edge against Garvey. Lee and Republican Eric Early, respectively, take 12% and 11%; Early only clocks in at 3% in the contest for a full term.
The special election has a considerably smaller number of contenders, which may explain the differences between these two questions: A total of 27 candidates will be on the ballot in the top-two primary for a full term, compared to only seven for the special.
● MI-Sen: The Michigan political tip-sheet MIRS and the Northern Michigan Business Alliance have publicized a survey of each party's Aug. 6 Senate primary from Target Insyght, a firm that has done work for state Democrats and media organizations. Democratic voters favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin by a wide 65-7 margin against actor Hill Harper, which is even larger than the 50-12 advantage that Public Policy Polling found in its recent survey for a pro-Slotkin group.
Target-Insyght, meanwhile, shows former Detroit Police Chief James Craig outpacing former Rep. Mike Rogers 33-20 in the GOP primary, with 11% going to former Rep. Peter Meijer. Another 2% favor rich guy Sandy Pensler, who lost the 2018 primary for this seat, while 33% are undecided. This is the first survey we've seen of this contest in months.
● WV-Sen: While every poll released to date has shown Gov. Jim Justice easily defeating Rep. Alex Mooney in the May 14 Republican primary for West Virginia's open Senate seat, the frontrunner is still using his opening TV ad to attack the congressman. Justice begins by addressing the commercials that the radical anti-tax Club for Growth has aired against him. "You know me," he says directly to the camera. "Do you really think I'd support Obama, Hillary, or Biden? Totally absurd."
After emphasizing his right-wing credentials, including the fact that he's Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, Justice takes a shot both at his rival's past career as a Maryland state legislator and the Club's acrimonious history with MAGA's master. "When you see Maryland Mooney's lying ads from his D.C. Club, remember what Trump says," Justice argues, before a clip plays of Trump dismissing the Club as "a fraud" and "crooked."
The National Journal, citing data from AdImpact, writes that the ad is airing as part of a relatively small $78,000 buy, though that figure could increase.
House
● CA-31: Former Rep. Gil Cisneros publicized an endorsement on Thursday from Rep. Robert Garcia, a fellow Democrat who represents a nearby slice of Los Angeles County, for the March 5 top-two primary. The freshman congressman, unlike the other 15 California House members who are backing Cisneros' comeback bid, did not serve with Cisneros when he represented a different part of Southern California from 2019 through 2021.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
● Hillsborough County, FL State Attorney: Democrat Andrew Warren, who recently said he would not run for another term as the top prosecutor in Hillsborough County, Florida, is now reconsidering that decision in the wake of a favorable ruling from a federal appeals court.
Warren was suspended from his post in 2022 by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has bragged about removing a progressive prosecutor he's derided as "woke." Warren soon challenged his ouster in court, but last year, a federal judge declined to reinstate him. U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle ruled that several of Warren's actions and statements that had motivated DeSantis—such as Warren's opposition to prosecuting individuals who obtain or provide abortions—were not protected by the First Amendment and were therefore not improper for the governor to rely on in suspending him.
On Wednesday, however, the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals determined that Hinkle had erred, concluding that many of the reasons DeSantis cited for removing Warren were in fact entitled to First Amendment protection. The appeals court ordered Hinkle to instead consider whether DeSantis would still have removed Warren from office based only on a smaller set of reasons that did not constitute protected speech. These include a policy Warren instituted aimed at reducing the number of prosecutions of bicyclists, a disproportionate number of whom were Black.
Just days earlier, Warren had announced he wouldn't challenge the Republican whom DeSantis picked to replace him, Suzy Lopez, because of what he called the "high risk" the governor would suspend him again if he were to win. Immediately after the 11th Circuit handed down its decision, though, Warren asked the appeals court to expedite his case, saying in a filing that his "decision about whether to run for reelection as State Attorney depends in significant part on the outcome of this litigation."
Ad Roundup
- MD-Sen: David Trone (D)
Correction: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly explained the basis for a legal ruling in the case brought by Democrat Andrew Warren challenging his suspension as state attorney in Hillsborough County, Florida. We have corrected that explanation.
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