Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new charts rounding up fundraising numbers for the House and Senate for the fourth quarter of 2023. Our data includes figures for every incumbent (excluding those who've said they're not seeking reelection) and notable announced or potential candidates.
The first downballot primaries of the year will be upon us in just a month, and every year, many House incumbents draw challenges from fellow party members who'd like to deny them renomination for a wide variety of reasons. Most of these challenges will fail, but some representatives will face tough battles. With these new fundraising figures in hand, we now have a better sense of which primaries are the ones to watch.
Three races in particular stand out, starting with the only incumbent vs. incumbent primary in the entire House, the March 5 Republican contest for Alabama's revamped 1st District.
Rep. Barry Moore decided to run for this safely red seat after the state's new court-drawn map turned his 2nd District into a Democratic-leaning constituency that's poised to elect a Black Democrat, but his political future faces a serious obstacle: Rep. Jerry Carl. Carl, who represents the existing 1st, outpaced his rival $543,000 to $161,000 in the fourth quarter, and he finished the year with a $1.1 million to $694,000 cash on hand edge.
Money isn't the only advantage Carl has in next month's contest for this dark red district in southern Alabama, though. Geography is another: Carl currently represents 59% of the new 1st, while Moore's seat forms the balance.
And while both Republicans are ardent conservatives who voted against recognizing Joe Biden's win, there's one key difference between them. Moore is a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, while Carl is closer to the party leadership. No other candidates are on the GOP primary ballot so, barring an exact tie, one of them will win the majority needed to avert a runoff.
A very different contest is unfolding on that same day in Texas' safely blue 18th District, where longtime Democratic incumbent Sheila Jackson Lee will face off with Amanda Edwards, a former Houston city councilwoman who once interned for the congresswoman. Jackson Lee spent most of 2023 running for mayor of Houston before announcing she would run for reelection—just days after a landslide loss to fellow Democrat John Whitmire in December. As a result, she begins her new race with a big cash deficit.
Edwards, who said for months that she would stick with her campaign even if Jackson Lee were to run for another term after all, outraised her old boss by a wide $265,000 to $16,000, and she ended December with a $856,000 to $223,000 advantage in terms of money in the bank. But there's one other candidate, restauranter Rob Slater, on the ballot, and while he hasn't reported raising any money, his presence could keep either frontrunner from taking the majority they need to avoid a May 28 runoff.
Edwards, who has largely avoided saying anything negative about her opponent, has pitched herself as an agent of change. However, her team responded to the new fundraising numbers by arguing they demonstrate "that people are not willing to invest in the congresswoman's campaign," a statement the Houston Chronicle called her "sharpest attack yet."
A few months later, another major smackdown will unfold in New Jersey's 8th District, where Rep. Rob Menendez is trying to fend off a well-funded challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the Democratic primary. By the time Bhalla launched his campaign in December, he'd already been fundraising aggressively, allowing him to beat the congressman $967,000 to $347,000 during his opening quarter. Bhalla also ended 2023 with $915,000 in the bank, while Menendez had a smaller $693,000 at his disposal.
Bhalla entered the race for this safely blue seat (which includes the city he serves as well as Jersey City) just a few months after Menendez's powerful father, Sen. Robert Menendez, was indicted on federal corruption charges. The younger Menendez has not been implicated in the scandal, but his critics have taken him to task for proclaiming his "unwavering confidence" in his father.
The congressman, however, retains the support of the area's powerful party leaders, which assures him a favorable place on the primary ballot. Complicating Bhalla's task further is that a third Democrat, businessman Kyle Jasey, is also running. While Jasey finished 2023 with a mere $20,000 in the bank, he could pull some anti-Menendez votes that might otherwise go for Bhalla. Unlike in Alabama and Texas, it only takes a plurality to win the nomination in New Jersey.
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The first downballot primaries of the year will be upon us in just a month, and every year, many House incumbents draw challenges from fellow party members who'd like to deny them renomination for a wide variety of reasons. Most of these challenges will fail, but some representatives will face tough battles. With these new fundraising figures in hand, we now have a better sense of which primaries are the ones to watch.
Three races in particular stand out, starting with the only incumbent vs. incumbent primary in the entire House, the March 5 Republican contest for Alabama's revamped 1st District.
Rep. Barry Moore decided to run for this safely red seat after the state's new court-drawn map turned his 2nd District into a Democratic-leaning constituency that's poised to elect a Black Democrat, but his political future faces a serious obstacle: Rep. Jerry Carl. Carl, who represents the existing 1st, outpaced his rival $543,000 to $161,000 in the fourth quarter, and he finished the year with a $1.1 million to $694,000 cash on hand edge.
Money isn't the only advantage Carl has in next month's contest for this dark red district in southern Alabama, though. Geography is another: Carl currently represents 59% of the new 1st, while Moore's seat forms the balance.
And while both Republicans are ardent conservatives who voted against recognizing Joe Biden's win, there's one key difference between them. Moore is a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, while Carl is closer to the party leadership. No other candidates are on the GOP primary ballot so, barring an exact tie, one of them will win the majority needed to avert a runoff.
A very different contest is unfolding on that same day in Texas' safely blue 18th District, where longtime Democratic incumbent Sheila Jackson Lee will face off with Amanda Edwards, a former Houston city councilwoman who once interned for the congresswoman. Jackson Lee spent most of 2023 running for mayor of Houston before announcing she would run for reelection—just days after a landslide loss to fellow Democrat John Whitmire in December. As a result, she begins her new race with a big cash deficit.
Edwards, who said for months that she would stick with her campaign even if Jackson Lee were to run for another term after all, outraised her old boss by a wide $265,000 to $16,000, and she ended December with a $856,000 to $223,000 advantage in terms of money in the bank. But there's one other candidate, restauranter Rob Slater, on the ballot, and while he hasn't reported raising any money, his presence could keep either frontrunner from taking the majority they need to avoid a May 28 runoff.
Edwards, who has largely avoided saying anything negative about her opponent, has pitched herself as an agent of change. However, her team responded to the new fundraising numbers by arguing they demonstrate "that people are not willing to invest in the congresswoman's campaign," a statement the Houston Chronicle called her "sharpest attack yet."
A few months later, another major smackdown will unfold in New Jersey's 8th District, where Rep. Rob Menendez is trying to fend off a well-funded challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the Democratic primary. By the time Bhalla launched his campaign in December, he'd already been fundraising aggressively, allowing him to beat the congressman $967,000 to $347,000 during his opening quarter. Bhalla also ended 2023 with $915,000 in the bank, while Menendez had a smaller $693,000 at his disposal.
Bhalla entered the race for this safely blue seat (which includes the city he serves as well as Jersey City) just a few months after Menendez's powerful father, Sen. Robert Menendez, was indicted on federal corruption charges. The younger Menendez has not been implicated in the scandal, but his critics have taken him to task for proclaiming his "unwavering confidence" in his father.
The congressman, however, retains the support of the area's powerful party leaders, which assures him a favorable place on the primary ballot. Complicating Bhalla's task further is that a third Democrat, businessman Kyle Jasey, is also running. While Jasey finished 2023 with a mere $20,000 in the bank, he could pull some anti-Menendez votes that might otherwise go for Bhalla. Unlike in Alabama and Texas, it only takes a plurality to win the nomination in New Jersey.
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